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Live Educational Webinar

How NOT to develop a health economic model

By Dr Shehzad Ali and Tushar Srivastava

Concluded on 21 July 2022




A health economic model is a critical piece of evidence considered by health technology assessment (HTA) agencies globally to inform reimbursement decisions. These models use explicit decision frameworks and robust evidence on multiple parameters to identify the most cost-effective strategy to provide value for money for public investment.

The process of developing health economic models can be complex, and require model developers to make a number of decisions regarding model structure, comparators, model parameters, statistical approaches and modelling assumptions. These choices occur at every stage of the model development process. Failure to account for important complexities of the decision problem correctly may result in the development of models which can be contextually naïve, error-prone or non-useful for decision making.

More often than not, HTA agencies identify challenges in the economic models submitted for reimbursement. These challenges may be methodological or structural; as a result, models may not appropriately reflect the disease process, current scientific evidence and/or the population or the decision-making context. These modelling issues have the potential to alter the final reimbursement recommendations.

We reviewed > 50 pharmacoeconomic reports published by CADTH and NICE based on their critical review of economic models submitted for drug reimbursement in Canada and the UK. We identified, classified and critically appraised the key methodological challenges identified in the economic models submitted by manufacturers. We particularly focused on modeling choices considered questionable by the review committees and were subsequently evaluated in their reanalysis to re-estimate cost-effectiveness estimates.

In this webinar, we discuss common problems with models submitted to HTA agencies, their impact on cost-effectiveness estimates, and practical strategies to avoid or overcome these challenges. In short, we discuss how not to model. We also discuss the role and steps in model validation process for early identification of issues with economic models.

You will benefit most from this webinar if you are one of the following:


  1. Developing or reviewing health economic models
  2. Supervising a team who deals with health economics or health economic modeling
  3. Interested in understanding the key areas considered by HTA agencies in their review process
  4. Member of or involved with stakeholders in the HTA review process (such as submitting manufacturers, review groups, review committee)

Dr Shehzad Ali

MBBS, MPH, MSc (MStats), PhD
Canada Research Chair, Public Health Economics

Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics
Schulich School of Medicine & Dentistry, Western University

Visiting Associate Professor, Macquarie University, Australia

Know him more

Dr Ali has over 15 years of professional experience as an academic researcher and consultant in the public and private sectors in both developed and developing countries. Dr. Ali is the Canada Research Chair in Public Health Economics, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, and cross-appointed with the Western Centre for Public Health and Family Medicine, Western University. He is Visiting Associate Professor of Health Economics at University of York (UK).

His expertise include HTA, decision modelling  Estimating the treatment effect of interventions using real world evidence; Monitoring and benchmarking health service performance in terms of efficiency and equity of access, utilisation and outcomes using large patient-level administrative data, explaining heterogeneity in health outcomes and predicting events using individual patient-level data and Eliciting value judgments and treatment preferences to inform resource allocation decisions.

Tushar Srivastava

MSc (Statistics and Computing)
Director – Modeling and Analytics, ConnectHEOR, UK
Fellow, Royal Statistical Society, UK
Honorary Research Fellow, ScHARR, University of Sheffield, UK

Know him more

Endorsed as a ‘Global Talent’ by prestigious ‘The Royal Society, UK’, Tushar is dynamic and  enjoys approaching complex problems with a holistic approach. He also holds an MSc. in Statistics and has authored a handbook on higher Mathematics, “A concise handbook of vector space theory and field theory, Srivastava T.”

Tushar’s technical expertise lies in different techniques including cost-effectiveness modelling, budget impact modelling, simulation modelling, statistical modelling and indirect comparisons analysis. He brings a unique blend of academic research, technical modelling and statistical skills and industry professionalism to support the life science industry at every stage of the product life cycle. He has a good experience in statistical analyses, including survival analysis and health related quality of life data analysis from clinical trials.

Tushar has worked in multiple  disease areas including oncology, CVD, infectious diseases, rare-diseases such as Fabry disease, ulcerative colitis, Crohn’s disease, and multiple sclerosis. He has extensive experience of product launch in countries in Europe, the United States, Latin America, and Australia. He also holds an Academic Researcher position in ScHARR, University of Sheffield, UK.

Besides work, Tushar enjoys playing badminton, jogging, and meditating.

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